Technologists, scientists, and futurists have been speculating and debating the idea that artificial intelligence (AI) will eventually surpass human intelligence for decades. However, since the introduction of OpenAI's ChatGPT, a generative AI chatbot, the discussion about how AI would eventually replace people has heated up. Large tech companies such as Google, Meta, Amazon, and even Microsoft are engaged in a fierce competition to develop their own language models and improve their AI platforms due to the advent of generative AI. Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla, now thinks that the day will come when AI surpasses human intelligence due to its rapid growth. According to him, artificial intelligence will actually be more intelligent than all of humanity by the end of 2029.
Musk's conviction stems from a recent conversation between futurist Ray Kurzweil and podcaster Joe Rogan, during which Kurzweil predicted that artificial intelligence (AI) would surpass human intelligence by 2029. Kurzweil has been examining how technology is growing exponentially, especially in the field of artificial intelligence. His investigation led him to the conclusion that human computational power, algorithmic expertise, and data processing capabilities are all fast increasing. Therefore, he thinks that these developments will eventually bring AI systems up to par with or even higher than human intellect.
While some might anticipate it will take another 100 years for AI to surpass human intelligence, Kurzweil thinks it might happen much sooner—possibly in the next five years—a forecast that is very similar to Elon Musk's. It's interesting to note that Kurzweil foresaw this progress in AI in 1999.
In the podcast, Kurzweil states, "We're not quite there, but we will be there, and by 2029 it will match any person." In actuality, people think I'm conservative. Many believe that will occur the following year or the year after. I did say that back in 1999. By 2029, I promised that we will match anyone. For thirty years, everyone believed that to be completely absurd. Several hundred people from all around the world attended a meeting at Stanford University to discuss my forecast, and while some believed it would happen by 2029, others did not. They estimated that a century would pass."
In response to Kurzweil's forecast, Elon Musk—who has frequently expressed concerns about the possible dangers of artificial intelligence—emphasized that the day when AI surpasses human intelligence will likely come much sooner, maybe even within the next year. According to Musk, artificial intelligence (AI) might not only match but even surpass human intelligence as a whole by 2029. "Next year, AI is likely to surpass human intelligence in the singular. AI will most likely surpass human intelligence by 2029, according to Musk's remark on Twitter (now X).
Now, one thing is certain: AI development is accelerating, regardless of whether it surpasses human intellect by 2029 as Kurzweil predicts or sooner as Musk indicates. This quick progress brings with it big challenges as well as wonderful opportunities. According to experts, in order to use AI for good, humanity must be ready to mitigate any risks and make sure that AI research continues to be morally and practically sound. Undoubtedly, the next few years will play a crucial role in determining how AI develops and how it affects our environment.
